Volcanic eruption, Ngauruhoe, New Zealand. Photo from National Geophysical Data Center (US).
QUOTES
Patrick Suppes
The fundamental laws of natural phenomena are essentially probabilistic rather
than deterministic in character.
Norman Swartz
All statistical propositions that satisfy all other requirements for
physical lawfulness are physical laws.
Eric Horvitz
Probablity is at the foundation of any intelligence
in an uncertain world.
ARTICLES
Statistical mechanics unifies different ecological patterns
by Roderick C. Dewar and Annabel Porté
Maximum relative entropy as a tool for applying statistical mechanics to
ecology. (Abstract)
What characterises a useful concept of causation in epidemiology?
by J. Olsen
The best concept of causation is the concept that provides the most interesting
and useful results.
Determinism versus stochasticism: in support of long coffee breaks
by C. C. Tam and B. A. Lopman
Response to Olsen: developing new frameworks of causation will be crucial
for expanding the boundaries of epidemiology and liberating the field from
the confines of individualism.
Odds Are, It's Wrong
Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results
a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes
science more like a crapshoot.
Chance
Comprehensive discussion of chance from The Information
Philosopher.
Tychism
by Andrew Reynolds
Tychism is the thesis that the world contains real possibilities left undetermined
by mechanical laws and initial conditions, these being decided by chance
and thereby explaining the emergence of genuine novelty and variety in the
universe.
The
Truth Wears Off
by Jonah Lehrer
Many results that are rigorously proved and accepted start shrinking in later
studies.
Species abundance distribution results from a spatial analogy of central
limit theorem
by Arnošt L. Šizling et al
The theory presented here provides a direct link between the frequency distribution
of species abundances and the spatial correlation structure of species distributions,
and thus between several fundamental descriptors of community structure.
DEMONSTRATIONS
Andrew
M. Rappe, JAVA Simulation of the Ideal Gas
The Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is an important scientific principle which
describes how energy is distributed in a system. A JAVA applet allows you
to visualize and explore the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution.
VIDEOS
John Mighton on The Ubiquitous Bell Curve
Are the laws of randomness so strong that we're stuck with existing distributions
of educational achievement in mathematics?
The Secret Life of Chaos
Chaos theory answers a question that mankind has asked for millennia - how
did we get here? (1-hour
film) (5-minute
preview)
AusHSI Research Notes
Videos designed to give a quick overview about statistical research techniques
used at the Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation.
On the Causes of Effects
by Stephen E. Fienberg
Discussions of the two concepts, "the effects of causes" and "the
causes of effects," go far back in the philosophical literature but
remain murky.
IMAGES
Einstein, dice and the bell curve
LINKS TO BOOK DESCRIPTIONS
Chance:
The Life of Games & the Game
of Life
by Joaquim P. Marques de Sá
The mathematics of chance in a broad variety of contexts.
Laws
of the Game: How the Principles of Nature Govern Chance
by Manfred Eigen
The unique feature of this book is the invention of a selection of games
(in the format of beads on a board, with moves affected by die throws)
designed to mimic aspects of science models. The point is that "dice
and rules" is a good description for scientific modeling involving
probability.
LINKS
Stochastikon
Stochastic methods for modelling, for reducing, and for controlling uncertainty,
in contrast to the methods of traditional science.
Non-technical
books relating to Probability
The notion of “chance” in these books is much broader than what mathematically-oriented
readers regard as “probability.”
Normal Distribution
Many things closely follow a Normal Distribution: heights of people, size
of things produced by machines, errors in measurements, blood pressure,
marks on a test...
